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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd