Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.