Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures
The mean number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that murder numbers may not point to enhanced national stability.
Significant Reduction in Per-Day Averages
There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This data was shared by the head of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The outcome in murders that have been recorded during these months is extremely important,” the President stated, adding that last month the smallest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.
Historical Background and Official Strategy
Intense drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily militarised operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.
That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.
At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”
The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:
- Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
- Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
- Increased cooperation between government departments.
Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns
But, public safety experts urged caution that using homicide data to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in different crimes such as abductions.
“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”
As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.
“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”
Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it might mask periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.
“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.
Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success
Where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.
“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration
However in spite of these measures, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.
A short time after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their anger at graft and narco-violence.
“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.